Running out of oil?

CAA's position stated at last nights meeting as "We don't think oil is 'running out'" isn't quite right. When the first barrel of oil was pumped out of the ground, we started "running out", so in that respect, I do agree that we're running out. We should say that "Running out of oil is not a problem that concerns us now". There is plenty of oil in the world today - we are literally awash in oil. That's what "peak" means, the maximum, the utmost, the highest point. The USA is the third largest "producer" of oil in the world today even though our supply has been in decline for 30 years. The price of oil is an indicator of how plentiful it is - cheaper than a cup of coffee ($150/bbl oil is still less than 25¢/cup). The problem, and its difficult to overstate this, is not that we have an oil shortage, but we have a demand surplus. Oil production simply cannot keep up with demand - that's what Hubbert told us is the inevitable outcome of unregulated production, and it's been proven in local and regional areas time and again. But now, it's happening on a global scale and the consequences are dire.
It simply does us no good to talk about the supply side of the dilemma. Peak oil means that we can't increase supply in any event, so we get irrational notions about political moves that will keep costs low, complaints that multinational oil companies are gouging consumers, opening up environmentally sensitive and economically marginal areas for oil exploration and production, converting coal, tar sands or shale to liquid fuels, using crops for transportation fuel, etc. These supply-side ideas will simply make matters worse. However, we can all influence demand. That's a much more empowering message than the prospect of "running out".

> However, we can all influence demand. That's a much more empowering message

Outstanding point!

We could go around in circles with linguistic distinctions, so it is probably better to just figure out what we want to say. :-)

The Economics 101 argument: Supply is not going up (and if it isn't going down, it will be in the very near future). Demand is going up in a big way (India and China). The supply and demand equation is heading, ever more quickly, in the direction of higher prices.

The more complex argument takes into account things like the cost of extracting and refining the oil going up, etc., but this just strengthens the basic argument.